Symposium on “Housing After the Fall: The Future of the American Dream”

The papers at this session have been asked to “address the question of whether and how the restructuring of the housing and residential finance sectors can affect housing availability and cost at the lower end. ” As stated, this question is certainly premature. Policymakers have barely begun to address the question of the future structure of the housing market and the housing finance system; they have been too busy trying to help the people who are facing foreclosure to worry very much as yet about how to prevent the current situation from happening again. But it is possible to assess the current situation with respect to housing availability and cost, and to review the recent past. To my mind, the housing market collapse has reinforced some current trends, rather than generating any new ones; and whatever policymakers may decide, the foreseeable future is sure to be a buyer’s, and a renter’s market. In my view, it is most appropriate to think not only about “the fall, ” but also about “the rise ” that preceded the fall. I date the rise from about 1994, and generally start with 1993 because of data limitations (the fact that the American Housing Survey is biennial in odd-numbered years). I date the fall from 2004, for reasons that will be discusse